2026 Senate Race Forecasts
Model-driven win probabilities for all 2026 U.S. Senate contests, primaries and general elections. Last updated June 26, 2026.
- Alabama Senate · Dem Primary — Dakarai Larriett 41%
- Alabama Senate · Runoff — Everett Wess 58%
- Alabama Senate · Runoff — Barry Moore 60%
- Alabama Senate · Rep Primary — Barry Moore 57%
- Alabama Senate · General — Barry Moore 100%
- Alaska Senate · Primary — Dan Sullivan 42%
- Alaska Senate · General — Dan Sullivan 52%
- Arkansas Senate · Rep Primary — Tom Cotton 94%
- Arkansas Senate · Dem Primary — Hallie Shoffner 97%
- Arkansas Senate · General — Tom Cotton 99%
- Arkansas Senate · Primary — Jeff Wadlin 100%
- Colorado Senate · Dem Primary — John Hickenlooper 96%
- Colorado Senate · Rep Primary — Mark Baisley 100%
- Colorado Senate · General — John Hickenlooper 100%
- Delaware Senate · Rep Primary — John Shulli 80%
- Delaware Senate · Dem Primary — Chris Coons 100%
- Delaware Senate · General — Chris Coons 100%
- Florida Senate · General — Ashley Moody 68%
- Florida Senate · Rep Primary — Ashley Moody 87%
- Florida Senate · Dem Primary — Alex Vindman 89%
- Georgia Senate · Runoff — Mike Collins 58%
- Georgia Senate · Rep Primary — Mike Collins 60%
- Georgia Senate · General — Jon Ossoff 73%
- Georgia Senate · Dem Primary — Jon Ossoff 100%
- Idaho Senate · Rep Primary — Jim Risch 91%
- Idaho Senate · Dem Primary — David Roth 94%
- Idaho Senate · Primary — Matt Loesby 100%
- Idaho Senate · General — Jim Risch 100%
- Illinois Senate · Dem Primary — Raja Krishnamoorthi 45%
- Illinois Senate · Rep Primary — Don Tracy 81%
- Illinois Senate · General — Juliana Stratton 96%
- Iowa Senate · Dem Primary — Josh Turek 51%
- Iowa Senate · General — Ashley Hinson 68%
- Iowa Senate · Rep Primary — Ashley Hinson 95%
- Iowa Senate · Primary — Thomas Laehn 100%
- Kansas Senate · Dem Primary — Erik Murray 10%
- Kansas Senate · General — Roger Marshall 87%
- Kansas Senate · Rep Primary — Roger Marshall 97%
- Kentucky Senate · Rep Primary — Andy Barr 60%
- Kentucky Senate · Dem Primary — Amy McGrath 68%
- Kentucky Senate · General — Andy Barr 100%
- Louisiana Senate · Rep Primary — Julia Letlow 34%
- Louisiana Senate · Dem Primary — Jamie Davis 59%
- Louisiana Senate · Runoff — Julia Letlow 61%
- Louisiana Senate · General — Julia Letlow 100%
- Maine Senate · General — Susan Collins 56%
- Maine Senate · Dem Primary — Graham Platner 95%
- Maine Senate · Rep Primary — Susan Collins 100%
- Massachusetts Senate · Dem Primary — Ed Markey 67%
- Massachusetts Senate · General — Ed Markey 98%
- Massachusetts Senate · Rep Primary — John Deaton 100%
- Michigan Senate · General — Abdul El-Sayed 50%
- Michigan Senate · Dem Primary — Abdul El-Sayed 45%
- Michigan Senate · Rep Primary — Mike Rogers 100%
- Minnesota Senate · Dem Primary — Angie Craig 52%
- Minnesota Senate · General — Angie Craig 80%
- Minnesota Senate · Rep Primary — Michele Tafoya 78%
- Mississippi Senate · General — Cindy Hyde-Smith 85%
- Mississippi Senate · Rep Primary — Cindy Hyde-Smith 95%
- Mississippi Senate · Dem Primary — Scott Colom 94%
- Montana Senate · Dem Primary — Reilly Neill 85%
- Montana Senate · Rep Primary — Kurt Alme 95%
- Montana Senate · General — Kurt Alme 96%
- Montana Senate · Primary — Kyle Austin 97%
- Nebraska Senate · General — Pete Ricketts 87%
- Nebraska Senate · Dem Primary — Cindy Burbank 93%
- Nebraska Senate · Rep Primary — Pete Ricketts 89%
- New Hampshire Senate · General — Chris Pappas 76%
- New Hampshire Senate · Rep Primary — John E. Sununu 89%
- New Hampshire Senate · Dem Primary — Chris Pappas 94%
- New Jersey Senate · Rep Primary — Robert Lebovics 85%
- New Jersey Senate · Dem Primary — Cory Booker 100%
- New Jersey Senate · General — Cory Booker 100%
- New Mexico Senate · Dem Primary — Ben Ray Luján 97%
- New Mexico Senate · General — Ben Ray Luján 100%
- North Carolina Senate · General — Roy Cooper 71%
- North Carolina Senate · Rep Primary — Michael Whatley 87%
- North Carolina Senate · Dem Primary — Roy Cooper 87%
- North Carolina Senate · Primary — Shannon Bray 100%
- Ohio Senate · General — Sherrod Brown 51%
- Ohio Senate · Dem Primary — Sherrod Brown 97%
- Ohio Senate · Primary — Bill Redpath 100%
- Ohio Senate · Rep Primary — Jon Husted 100%
- Oklahoma Senate · Dem Primary — Jim Priest 88%
- Oklahoma Senate · Rep Primary — Kevin Hern 90%
- Oklahoma Senate · Primary — Sevier White 100%
- Oklahoma Senate · General — Kevin Hern 100%
- Oregon Senate · Rep Primary — David Brock Smith 71%
- Oregon Senate · Dem Primary — Jeff Merkley 97%
- Oregon Senate · General — Jeff Merkley 100%
- Rhode Island Senate · Dem Primary — Jack Reed 97%
- Rhode Island Senate · General — Jack Reed 98%
- Rhode Island Senate · Rep Primary — Raymond McKay 100%
- South Carolina Senate · Rep Primary — Lindsey Graham 82%
- South Carolina Senate · General — Lindsey Graham 88%
- South Carolina Senate · Dem Primary — Annie Andrews 92%
- South Carolina Senate · Primary — Kasie Whitener 95%
- South Dakota Senate · Rep Primary — Mike Rounds 97%
- South Dakota Senate · General — Mike Rounds 98%
- South Dakota Senate · Dem Primary — Julian Beaudion 100%
- Tennessee Senate · Dem Primary — Marquita Bradshaw 85%
- Tennessee Senate · Rep Primary — Bill Hagerty 100%
- Tennessee Senate · General — Bill Hagerty 100%
- Texas Senate · Rep Primary — John Cornyn 46%
- Texas Senate · Dem Primary — James Talarico 49%
- Texas Senate · General — James Talarico 58%
- Texas Senate · Primary — Daniel Sims 83%
- Virginia Senate · Rep Primary — Bert Mizusawa 74%
- Virginia Senate · General — Mark Warner 99%
- Virginia Senate · Dem Primary — Mark Warner 100%
- West Virginia Senate · Rep Primary — Shelley Moore Capito 87%
- West Virginia Senate · Dem Primary — Zach Shrewsbury 88%
- Wyoming Senate · Rep Primary — Harriet Hageman 89%
- Wyoming Senate · Dem Primary — James Byrd 96%