Texas Senate 2026 Rep Primary

The Texas Senate rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Ken Paxton edges John Cornyn, 46% to 46% in a 8-candidate field. Ken Paxton leads the field in reported fundraising, John Cornyn has the most tracked endorsements, and incumbent John Cornyn trails in the forecast. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Ken Paxton — 46%
  2. John Cornyn (incumbent) — 46%
  3. Wesley Hunt — 2%
  4. Gulrez "Gus" Khan — 1%
  5. Virgil Bierschwale — 1%
  6. Sara Canady — 1%
  7. John Adefope — 1%
  8. Anna Bender — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model