Texas Senate 2026 Rep Primary

The Texas Senate rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: John Cornyn edges Ken Paxton, 46% to 46% in a 8-candidate field. John Cornyn is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. John Cornyn (incumbent) — 46%
2. Ken Paxton — 46%
3. Wesley Hunt — 2%
4. Gulrez "Gus" Khan — 1%
5. Virgil Bierschwale — 1%
6. Sara Canady — 1%
7. John Adefope — 1%
8. Anna Bender — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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