2026 Race Forecasts

Name: 2026 U.S. Election Win Probabilities
Creator: David Reke
License: https://electionprobabilities.com/about

Model-driven win probabilities for every 2026 governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House race — primaries and general elections, updated daily. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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2026 Governor race forecasts
2026 U.S. Senate race forecasts
2026 U.S. House race forecasts
Most competitive 2026 races
Biggest movers — recent forecast shifts

About the model · Model accuracy