Most Competitive 2026 Races
The 2026 races the model rates closest — where the gap between the top two candidates is smallest. Last updated June 26, 2026.
- Vermont Governor · Dem Primary — Amanda Janoo 33%
- Florida 11th — House · Rep Primary — Anthony Sabatini 26%
- Kansas 3rd — House · Rep Primary — Eric Jenkins 25%
- Kansas Senate · Dem Primary — Erik Murray 10%
- Missouri 1st — House · Rep Primary — Paul Berry 50%
- Tennessee 8th — House · Dem Primary — Dewey Gordon Bryan 25%
- Hawaii 1st — House · Rep Primary — Maxwell Frazier 50%
- New York 5th — House · Rep Primary — Aaron Cherry 50%
- Colorado 2nd — House · Rep Primary — Christina Blunt 50%
- Illinois 5th — House · Rep Primary — Tommy Hanson 33%
- Illinois 7th — House · Rep Primary — Chad Koppie 50%
- Arkansas Governor · Dem Primary — Fredrick Love 50%
- Arkansas 4th — House · Dem Primary — James Russell 50%
- Texas 1st — House · Primary — Sonia Canchola 50%
- Texas 34th — House · Rep Primary — Eric Flores 48%
- Alabama 6th — House · Dem Primary — Keith Pilkington 25%
- Alabama 7th — House · Rep Primary — Ammie Akin 50%
- Idaho Governor · Primary — Melissa-Sue Robinson 50%
- Indiana 7th — House · Rep Primary — Patrick McAuley 50%
- Indiana 9th — House · Primary — Tonya Hudson 50%
- Ohio 9th — House · Primary — Matthew Althaus 50%
- Ohio 11th — House · Rep Primary — Mike Kirchner 50%
- Rhode Island Governor · Rep Primary — Aaron Guckian 33%
- Florida 11th — House · General — Barbie Harden Hall 50%
- Florida 16th — House · General — Sydney Gruters 50%
- North Carolina 11th — House · General — Jamie Ager 50%
- Texas 38th — House · General — Melissa McDonough 50%
- California 22th — House · Primary — David Valadao 34%
- California 32th — House · Primary — Brad Sherman 43%
- Alaska Senate · Primary — Dan Sullivan 42%
- California Governor · Primary — Xavier Becerra 20%
- California 1st — House · Primary — Mike McGuire 34%
- California 40th — House · Primary — Young Kim 30%
- Arizona 6th — House · General — JoAnna Mendoza 50%
- Alaska Governor · Primary — Tom Begich 16%
- Kentucky 4th — House · Rep Primary — Thomas Massie 50%
- Florida 9th — House · General — Darren Soto 50%
- Texas Senate · Rep Primary — John Cornyn 46%
- Texas Senate · Dem Primary — James Talarico 49%
- Connecticut 1st — House · Dem Primary — Luke Bronin 49%
- Louisiana Senate · Rep Primary — Julia Letlow 34%
- South Dakota Governor · Rep Primary — Larry Rhoden 27%
- California 13th — House · Primary — Adam Gray 35%
- California 4th — House · Primary — Mike Thompson 32%
- Oregon Governor · Rep Primary — Christine Drazan 8%
- New York 10th — House · Dem Primary — Dan Goldman 50%
- Virginia 9th — House · Dem Primary — Adam Murphy 49%
- California 11th — House · Primary — Scott Wiener 40%
- Michigan Senate · General — Abdul El-Sayed 50%
- California 44th — House · Primary — Nanette Barragán 50%
- California 35th — House · Primary — Norma Torres 50%
- Idaho Governor · Dem Primary — Maxine Durand 26%
- Illinois 9th — House · Dem Primary — Daniel Biss 30%
- California 39th — House · Primary — Mark Takano 51%
- California 48th — House · Primary — Jim Desmond 25%
- Louisiana 2nd — House · Dem Primary — Troy Carter 51%
- California 12th — House · Dem Primary — Lateefah Simon 51%
- Nebraska Governor · Rep Primary — Jim Pillen 18%
- California 6th — House · Primary — Kevin Kiley 27%
- Colorado 8th — House · Dem Primary — Manny Rutinel 51%