Most Competitive 2026 Races
The 2026 races the model rates closest — where the gap between the top two candidates is smallest. Last updated September 2, 2026.
- Missouri 1st — House · Rep Primary — Paul Berry 50%
- New York 5th — House · Rep Primary — Aaron Cherry 50%
- Colorado 2nd — House · Rep Primary — Christina Blunt 50%
- Illinois 5th — House · Rep Primary — Tommy Hanson 33%
- Arkansas Governor · Dem Primary — Fredrick Love 50%
- Texas 1st — House · Primary — Sonia Canchola 50%
- Texas 34th — House · Rep Primary — Eric Flores 48%
- Idaho Governor · Primary — Melissa-Sue Robinson 50%
- Indiana 7th — House · Rep Primary — Patrick McAuley 50%
- Ohio 9th — House · Primary — Matthew Althaus 50%
- Ohio 11th — House · Rep Primary — Mike Kirchner 50%
- California 11th — House · General — Scott Wiener 50%
- California 1st — House · Primary — Mike McGuire 33%
- California 22th — House · Primary — Randy Villegas 33%
- Alaska Senate · Primary — Mary Peltola 42%
- New York 10th — House · Dem Primary — Dan Goldman 50%
- California 32th — House · Primary — Brad Sherman 43%
- California Governor · Primary — Xavier Becerra 20%
- California 40th — House · Primary — Young Kim 30%
- North Carolina 1st — House · General — Laurie Buckhout 50%
- Arizona 6th — House · General — JoAnna Mendoza 50%
- Colorado 8th — House · Dem Primary — Manny Rutinel 50%
- California 13th — House · Primary — Adam Gray 33%
- Minnesota Senate · Dem Primary — Angie Craig 49%
- California 14th — House · Primary — Aisha Wahab 44%
- New York 17th — House · General — Mike Lawler 50%
- Illinois 9th — House · Dem Primary — Daniel Biss 30%
- Texas Senate · Rep Primary — John Cornyn 46%
- California 6th — House · Primary — Richard Pan 26%
- North Carolina 4th — House · Dem Primary — Valerie Foushee 49%
- Kentucky 4th — House · Rep Primary — Thomas Massie 50%
- California 7th — House · Primary — Doris Matsui 45%
- California 11th — House · Primary — Scott Wiener 35%
- Michigan Senate · Dem Primary — Abdul El-Sayed 37%
- California 4th — House · Primary — Mike Thompson 32%
- Connecticut 1st — House · Dem Primary — John Larson 48%
- Louisiana Senate · Rep Primary — Julia Letlow 34%
- California 48th — House · Primary — Jim Desmond 25%
- Washington 3rd — House · Primary — Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 35%
- Colorado Governor · Dem Primary — Phil Weiser 50%
- Florida 11th — House · General — Royal Webster 50%
- Illinois Senate · Dem Primary — Raja Krishnamoorthi 42%
- Kansas Governor · Dem Primary — Ethan Corson 50%
- Oklahoma Governor · Runoff — Gentner Drummond 50%
- California 44th — House · Primary — Nanette Barragán 50%
- Alaska Governor · Primary — Bernadette Wilson 17%
- California 35th — House · Primary — Norma Torres 50%
- Texas Senate · Dem Primary — James Talarico 50%
- California 12th — House · Dem Primary — Lateefah Simon 50%
- Michigan 7th — House · Dem Primary — Bridget Brink 41%
- California 39th — House · Primary — Mark Takano 51%
- Louisiana 2nd — House · Dem Primary — Troy Carter 51%
- North Carolina 12th — House · Rep Primary — Jack Codiga 51%
- West Virginia 1st — House · Dem Primary — Vince George 51%
- Colorado 1st — House · Dem Primary — Diana DeGette 50%
- Alabama Senate · Dem Primary — Dakarai Larriett 40%
- Oklahoma 1st — House · Rep Primary — Mark Tedford 36%
- Illinois 8th — House · Dem Primary — Melissa Bean 42%
- Arizona 5th — House · Rep Primary — Mark Lamb 51%
- Washington 9th — House · Primary — Adam Smith 42%