Connecticut 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Connecticut 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. The model sees a close race: Luke Bronin edges John Larson, 48% to 48% in a 4-candidate field. Luke Bronin leads the field in reported fundraising, John Larson has the most tracked endorsements, and incumbent John Larson trails in the forecast. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Luke Bronin — 48%
- John Larson (incumbent) — 48%
- Jillian Gilchrest — 2%
- Ruth Fortune — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.