Connecticut 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Connecticut 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. The model sees a close race: John Larson edges Luke Bronin, 48% to 47% in a 5-candidate field. John Larson is the incumbent and has the most tracked endorsements and Luke Bronin leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. John Larson (incumbent) — 48%
2. Luke Bronin — 47%
3. Jillian Gilchrest — 1%
4. Mark Stewart Greenstein — 1%
5. Ruth Fortune — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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