California 6th — House 2026 Primary

The California 6th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Richard Pan edges Kevin Kiley, 26% to 25% in a 7-candidate field. Kevin Kiley leads the field in reported fundraising and Lauren Babb Tomlinson has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Richard Pan — 26%
2. Kevin Kiley — 25%
3. Thien Ho — 23%
4. Lauren Babb Tomlinson — 22%
5. Martha Guerrero — 2%
6. Michael Stansfield — 1%
7. Tyler Vandenberg — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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