California 6th — House 2026 Primary
The California 6th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Kevin Kiley edges Democrat Thien Ho, 28% to 23% in a 7-candidate field. Kevin Kiley is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Lauren Babb Tomlinson has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Kevin Kiley (incumbent) — 28%
- Thien Ho — 23%
- Richard Pan — 21%
- Lauren Babb Tomlinson — 20%
- Martha Guerrero — 5%
- Michael Stansfield — 2%
- Tyler Vandenberg — 1%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.