California 4th — House 2026 Primary

The California 4th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Mike Thompson edges Democrat Eric Jones, 32% to 31% in a 8-candidate field. Mike Thompson is the incumbent and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Mike Thompson (incumbent) — 32%
2. Eric Jones — 31%
3. Jimih Jones — 30%
4. Ray Riehle — 2%
5. John Mackenzie — 1%
6. Sharon Brown — 1%
7. Mandy Ghusar — 1%
8. Chuck Uribe — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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