California 48th — House 2026 Primary
The California 48th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Jim Desmond edges Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, 26% to 23% in a 10-candidate field. Brandon Riker leads the field in reported fundraising and Marni von Wilpert has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jim Desmond — 26%
- Ammar Campa-Najjar — 23%
- Brandon Riker — 23%
- Marni von Wilpert — 22%
- Abel Chavez — 1%
- Corinna Contreras — 1%
- Kevin Patrick O'Neil — 1%
- Stephen Clemons — 1%
+2 more candidates
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.