California 48th — House 2026 Primary

The California 48th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Jim Desmond edges Democrat Marni von Wilpert, 25% to 24% in a 10-candidate field. Brandon Riker leads the field in reported fundraising and Marni von Wilpert has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Jim Desmond — 25%
2. Marni von Wilpert — 24%
3. Ammar Campa-Najjar — 24%
4. Brandon Riker — 22%
5. Abel Chavez — 1%
6. Corinna Contreras — 1%
7. Stephen Clemons — 1%
8. Eric Shaw — 1%

+2 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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