California 40th — House 2026 Primary
The California 40th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Ken Calvert edges Republican Young Kim, 27% to 26% in a 8-candidate field. Ken Calvert is the incumbent and has the most tracked endorsements and Young Kim leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ken Calvert (incumbent) — 27%
- Young Kim (incumbent) — 26%
- Esther Kim Varet — 25%
- Joe Kerr — 11%
- Lisa Ramirez — 7%
- Nina Linh — 1%
- Claude Keissieh — 1%
- Francis Xavier Hoffman — 1%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.