California 40th — House 2026 Primary

The California 40th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Young Kim edges Republican Ken Calvert, 30% to 29% in a 8-candidate field. Young Kim is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Ken Calvert has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Young Kim (incumbent) — 30%
  2. Ken Calvert — 29%
  3. Esther Kim Varet — 29%
  4. Joe Kerr — 4%
  5. Lisa Ramirez — 3%
  6. Nina Linh — 2%
  7. Claude Keissieh — 1%
  8. Francis Xavier Hoffman — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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