Texas 32th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Texas 32th — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model favors Paul Bondar at 58%, ahead of Jace Yarbrough at 33% in a 7-candidate field. Paul Bondar leads the field in reported fundraising and Jace Yarbrough has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Paul Bondar — 58%
2. Jace Yarbrough — 33%
3. Gordon Heslop — 2%
4. Darrell Day — 2%
5. Abteen Vaziri — 2%
6. Aimee Carrasco — 2%
7. Monty Montanez — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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