Kentucky 4th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Kentucky 4th — House rep primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model sees a close race: Thomas Massie edges Ed Gallrein, 50% to 50%. Thomas Massie is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Thomas Massie (incumbent) — 50%
- Ed Gallrein — 50%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.