California 11th — House 2026 Primary

The California 11th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Scott Wiener edges Democrat Saikat Chakrabarti, 35% to 35% in a 11-candidate field. Saikat Chakrabarti leads the field in reported fundraising and Connie Chan has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Scott Wiener — 35%
2. Saikat Chakrabarti — 35%
3. Connie Chan — 19%
4. Marie Hurabiell — 3%
5. Omed Hamid — 1%
6. Nathan Deer — 1%
7. David Ganezer — 1%
8. Jingchao Xiong — 1%

+3 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model