California 22th — House 2026 Primary
The California 22th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican David Valadao edges Democrat Randy Villegas, 34% to 33% in a 3-candidate field. David Valadao is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Randy Villegas has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- David Valadao (incumbent) — 34%
- Randy Villegas — 33%
- Jasmeet Bains — 33%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.