Alaska Governor 2026 Primary

The Alaska Governor primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Bernadette Wilson edges Democrat Tom Begich, 17% to 16% in a 19-candidate field. Matt Heilala leads the field in reported fundraising and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Bernadette Wilson — 17%
2. Tom Begich — 16%
3. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 10%
4. Dave Bronson — 9%
5. Click Bishop — 7%
6. Matt Claman — 7%
7. Nancy Dahlstrom — 7%
8. Matt Heilala — 6%

+11 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated September 11, 2026.

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