Alaska Governor 2026 Primary

The Alaska Governor primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Tom Begich edges Republican Bernadette Wilson, 15% to 15% in a 19-candidate field. Matt Heilala leads the field in reported fundraising and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Tom Begich — 15%
2. Bernadette Wilson — 15%
3. Matt Heilala — 10%
4. Dave Bronson — 9%
5. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 8%
6. Click Bishop — 7%
7. Matt Claman — 7%
8. Nancy Dahlstrom — 7%

+11 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model