Alaska Governor 2026 Primary
The Alaska Governor primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Matt Heilala edges Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, 18% to 12% in a 19-candidate field. Matt Heilala leads the field in reported fundraising and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Matt Heilala — 18%
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 12%
- Bernadette Wilson — 8%
- Treg Taylor — 8%
- Adam Crum — 4%
- Shelley Hughes — 4%
- Click Bishop — 4%
- Dave Bronson — 4%
+11 more candidates
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.