Alaska Governor 2026 Primary

The Alaska Governor primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Matt Heilala edges Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, 18% to 12% in a 19-candidate field. Matt Heilala leads the field in reported fundraising and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Matt Heilala — 18%
  2. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 12%
  3. Bernadette Wilson — 8%
  4. Treg Taylor — 8%
  5. Adam Crum — 4%
  6. Shelley Hughes — 4%
  7. Click Bishop — 4%
  8. Dave Bronson — 4%

+11 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model