California 14th — House 2026 Primary

The California 14th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Aisha Wahab edges Democrat Melissa Hernandez, 46% to 42% in a 8-candidate field. Melissa Hernandez leads the field in reported fundraising and Aisha Wahab has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Aisha Wahab — 46%
2. Melissa Hernandez — 42%
3. Wendy Huang — 4%
4. Matt Ortega — 2%
5. Suzanne Chenault — 2%
6. Carin Elam — 2%
7. Rakhi Israni Singh — 1%
8. Victor Aguilar Jr. — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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