Arizona 5th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Arizona 5th — House rep primary is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The model sees a close race: Daniel Keenan edges Mark Lamb, 53% to 47%. Daniel Keenan leads the field in reported fundraising and Mark Lamb has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Daniel Keenan — 53%
- Mark Lamb — 47%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.