Washington 5th — House 2026 Primary
The Washington 5th — House primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model has Republican Michael Baumgartner narrowly ahead of independent Nate Powell, 50% to 15% in a 12-candidate field. Michael Baumgartner is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Michael Baumgartner (incumbent) — 50%
- Nate Powell — 15%
- Carmela Conroy — 12%
- Kevin Fagan — 4%
- David Womack — 3%
- Bajun Mavalwalla — 3%
- Ann Marie Danimus — 3%
- Matthew Hayes — 2%
+4 more candidates
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.