Washington 5th — House 2026 Primary

The Washington 5th — House primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Michael Baumgartner edges Democrat Carmela Conroy, 32% to 30% in a 12-candidate field. Michael Baumgartner is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Michael Baumgartner (incumbent) — 32%
  2. Carmela Conroy — 30%
  3. Nate Powell — 24%
  4. Kevin Fagan — 2%
  5. Bajun Mavalwalla — 2%
  6. David Womack — 2%
  7. Richard Freudenberg — 2%
  8. Ann Marie Danimus — 1%

+4 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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