Texas 1st — House 2026 Primary

The Texas 1st — House primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Sonia Canchola edges Michael Morton, 50% to 50%. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Sonia Canchola — 50%
  2. Michael Morton — 50%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model