North Carolina 3rd — House 2026 Dem Primary

The North Carolina 3rd — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Raymond Smith Jr. edges Allison Jaslow, 51% to 49%. Raymond Smith Jr. leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Raymond Smith Jr. — 51%
2. Allison Jaslow — 49%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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