Louisiana Senate 2026 Rep Primary
The Louisiana Senate rep primary is scheduled for May 16, 2026. The model sees a close race: Julia Letlow edges John Fleming, 34% to 33% in a 4-candidate field. Bill Cassidy leads the field in reported fundraising, Julia Letlow has the most tracked endorsements, and incumbent Bill Cassidy trails in the forecast. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Julia Letlow — 34%
- John Fleming — 33%
- Bill Cassidy (incumbent) — 32%
- Mark Spencer — 1%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.