Maryland 5th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Maryland 5th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model sees a close race: Harry Dunn edges Adrian Boafo, 19% to 16% in a 24-candidate field. Quincy Bareebe leads the field in reported fundraising and Adrian Boafo has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Harry Dunn — 19%
2. Adrian Boafo — 16%
3. Quincy Bareebe — 16%
4. Wala Blegay — 3%
5. Rushern Baker — 2%
6. Tracy Starr — 2%
7. Harry Jarin — 2%
8. David Sundberg — 2%

+16 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated September 11, 2026.

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