Michigan Senate 2026 Dem Primary
The Michigan Senate dem primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model sees a close race: Abdul El-Sayed edges Haley Stevens, 40% to 40% in a 4-candidate field. Mallory McMorrow leads the field in reported fundraising and Abdul El-Sayed has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Abdul El-Sayed — 40%
- Haley Stevens — 40%
- Mallory McMorrow — 19%
- Rachel Howard — 1%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.