Alaska Senate 2026 Primary

The Alaska Senate primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Mary Peltola edges Republican Dan Sullivan, 42% to 42% in a 13-candidate field. Mary Peltola leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements and incumbent Dan Sullivan trails in the forecast. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Mary Peltola — 42%
2. Dan Sullivan (incumbent) — 42%
3. Dan J. Sullivan — 3%
4. Dustin Darden — 1%
5. Gerald L. Heikes — 1%
6. Heather McElwain — 1%
7. Scott Kohlhaas — 1%
8. Richard Grayson — 1%

+5 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model