Alaska Senate 2026 Primary
The Alaska Senate primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Dan Sullivan edges Democrat Mary Peltola, 33% to 32% in a 13-candidate field. Dan Sullivan is the incumbent, Dan J. Sullivan leads the field in reported fundraising, and Mary Peltola has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Dan Sullivan (incumbent) — 33%
- Mary Peltola — 32%
- Dan J. Sullivan — 23%
- Dustin Darden — 1%
- Fred C. Grauberger — 1%
- Gerald L. Heikes — 1%
- Heather McElwain — 1%
- Scott Kohlhaas — 1%
+5 more candidates
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.