Tennessee 5th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Tennessee 5th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 6, 2026. The model favors Andy Ogles at 55%, ahead of Charlie Hatcher at 43% in a 3-candidate field. Andy Ogles is the incumbent and has the most tracked endorsements and Charlie Hatcher leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Andy Ogles (incumbent) — 55%
- Charlie Hatcher — 43%
- Patrick Smith — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.