California 1st — House 2026 Primary

The California 1st — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican James Gallagher edges Democrat Mike McGuire, 33% to 33% in a 5-candidate field. Mike McGuire leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. James Gallagher — 33%
  2. Mike McGuire — 33%
  3. Audrey Denney — 31%
  4. Janice Karrman — 2%
  5. Angelita Valles — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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