California 1st — House 2026 Primary

The California 1st — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Mike McGuire edges Republican James Gallagher, 33% to 33% in a 5-candidate field. Mike McGuire leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Mike McGuire — 33%
  2. James Gallagher — 33%
  3. Audrey Denney — 32%
  4. Janice Karrman — 2%
  5. Angelita Valles — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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