North Carolina 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The North Carolina 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Valerie Foushee edges Nida Allam, 50% to 48% in a 3-candidate field. Valerie Foushee is the incumbent and has the most tracked endorsements and Nida Allam leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Valerie Foushee (incumbent) — 50%
- Nida Allam — 48%
- Mary Patterson — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.