California Governor 2026 Primary
The California Governor primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model has Democrat Matt Mahan narrowly ahead of Republican Steve Hilton, 31% to 18% in a 7-candidate field. Matt Mahan leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Matt Mahan — 31%
- Steve Hilton — 18%
- Xavier Becerra — 15%
- Tom Steyer — 13%
- Chad Bianco — 11%
- Katie Porter — 10%
- Antonio Villaraigosa — 1%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.