California Governor 2026 Primary

The California Governor primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Xavier Becerra edges Republican Steve Hilton, 20% to 20% in a 7-candidate field. Matt Mahan leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Xavier Becerra — 20%
  2. Steve Hilton — 20%
  3. Matt Mahan — 19%
  4. Tom Steyer — 18%
  5. Chad Bianco — 14%
  6. Katie Porter — 9%
  7. Antonio Villaraigosa — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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