2026 Governor Race Forecasts
Model-driven win probabilities for all 2026 gubernatorial contests, primaries and general elections. Last updated September 2, 2026.
- Alabama Governor · Dem Primary — Doug Jones 87%
- Alabama Governor · Rep Primary — Tommy Tuberville 94%
- Alabama Governor · General — Tommy Tuberville 100%
- Alaska Governor · Primary — Bernadette Wilson 17%
- Alaska Governor · General — Bernadette Wilson 69%
- Arizona Governor · General — Katie Hobbs 74%
- Arizona Governor · Rep Primary — Andy Biggs 84%
- Arizona Governor · Dem Primary — Katie Hobbs 100%
- Arizona Governor · Primary — Barry Hess 100%
- Arkansas Governor · Dem Primary — Fredrick Love 50%
- Arkansas Governor · General — Sarah Huckabee Sanders 94%
- Arkansas Governor · Primary — Colt Shelby 100%
- Arkansas Governor · Rep Primary — Sarah Huckabee Sanders 100%
- California Governor · Primary — Xavier Becerra 20%
- California Governor · General — Xavier Becerra 85%
- Colorado Governor · Dem Primary — Phil Weiser 50%
- Colorado Governor · Rep Primary — Victor Marx 74%
- Colorado Governor · General — Michael Bennet 96%
- Connecticut Governor · Dem Primary — Ned Lamont 64%
- Connecticut Governor · General — Ned Lamont 94%
- Connecticut Governor · Rep Primary — Ryan Fazio 99%
- Florida Governor · General — Byron Donalds 68%
- Florida Governor · Rep Primary — Byron Donalds 66%
- Florida Governor · Dem Primary — David Jolly 79%
- Florida Governor · Primary — Scott Jewett 100%
- Georgia Governor · Rep Primary — Rick Jackson 50%
- Georgia Governor · Dem Primary — Keisha Lance Bottoms 44%
- Georgia Governor · General — Rick Jackson 62%
- Hawaii Governor · Dem Primary — Josh Green 92%
- Hawaii Governor · Rep Primary — Gary Cordery 97%
- Hawaii Governor · General — Josh Green 100%
- Idaho Governor · Primary — Melissa-Sue Robinson 50%
- Idaho Governor · Rep Primary — Brad Little 83%
- Idaho Governor · Dem Primary — Terri Pickens 91%
- Idaho Governor · General — Brad Little 100%
- Illinois Governor · Rep Primary — Darren Bailey 92%
- Illinois Governor · Dem Primary — JB Pritzker 100%
- Illinois Governor · General — JB Pritzker 100%
- Iowa Governor · Rep Primary — Adam Steen 45%
- Iowa Governor · General — Rob Sand 68%
- Iowa Governor · Dem Primary — Rob Sand 100%
- Kansas Governor · Dem Primary — Ethan Corson 50%
- Kansas Governor · Rep Primary — Philip Sarnecki 56%
- Kansas Governor · General — Philip Sarnecki 100%
- Maine Governor · Dem Primary — Troy Jackson 26%
- Maine Governor · Rep Primary — Bobby Charles 40%
- Maine Governor · General — Hannah Pingree 91%
- Maryland Governor · Rep Primary — Ed Hale 69%
- Maryland Governor · Dem Primary — Wes Moore 97%
- Maryland Governor · General — Wes Moore 100%
- Massachusetts Governor · Rep Primary — Michael Minogue 75%
- Massachusetts Governor · General — Maura Healey 85%
- Massachusetts Governor · Dem Primary — Maura Healey 100%
- Michigan Governor · Rep Primary — John James 55%
- Michigan Governor · General — Jocelyn Benson 66%
- Michigan Governor · Dem Primary — Jocelyn Benson 89%
- Michigan Governor · Primary — Anthony Hudson 100%
- Minnesota Governor · Rep Primary — Mike Lindell 62%
- Minnesota Governor · Dem Primary — Amy Klobuchar 83%
- Minnesota Governor · General — Amy Klobuchar 93%
- Nebraska Governor · General — Jim Pillen 75%
- Nebraska Governor · Rep Primary — Jim Pillen 87%
- Nebraska Governor · Dem Primary — Lynne Walz 97%
- Nevada Governor · General — Joe Lombardo 74%
- Nevada Governor · Rep Primary — Joe Lombardo 85%
- Nevada Governor · Dem Primary — Aaron Ford 87%
- New Hampshire Governor · General — Kelly Ayotte 87%
- New Hampshire Governor · Dem Primary — Cinde Warmington 100%
- New Hampshire Governor · Rep Primary — Kelly Ayotte 100%
- New Mexico Governor · Rep Primary — Gregg Hull 50%
- New Mexico Governor · Dem Primary — Deb Haaland 73%
- New Mexico Governor · General — Deb Haaland 94%
- New York Governor · General — Kathy Hochul 91%
- New York Governor · Rep Primary — Bruce Blakeman 96%
- New York Governor · Dem Primary — Kathy Hochul 99%
- Ohio Governor · General — Vivek Ramaswamy 68%
- Ohio Governor · Rep Primary — Vivek Ramaswamy 91%
- Ohio Governor · Dem Primary — Amy Acton 100%
- Ohio Governor · Primary — Don Kissick 100%
- Oklahoma Governor · Runoff — Gentner Drummond 50%
- Oklahoma Governor · Rep Primary — Mike Mazzei 43%
- Oklahoma Governor · Dem Primary — Cyndi Munson 94%
- Oklahoma Governor · General — Gentner Drummond 100%
- Oregon Governor · Rep Primary — Christine Drazan 64%
- Oregon Governor · General — Tina Kotek 81%
- Oregon Governor · Dem Primary — Tina Kotek 79%
- Pennsylvania Governor · General — Josh Shapiro 98%
- Pennsylvania Governor · Dem Primary — Josh Shapiro 100%
- Pennsylvania Governor · Primary — Ken Krawchuk 100%
- Pennsylvania Governor · Rep Primary — Stacy Garrity 100%
- Rhode Island Governor · Dem Primary — Helena Foulkes 74%
- Rhode Island Governor · Rep Primary — Aaron Guckian 93%
- Rhode Island Governor · General — Helena Foulkes 100%
- South Carolina Governor · Rep Primary — Alan Wilson 32%
- South Carolina Governor · Dem Primary — Jermaine Johnson 54%
- South Carolina Governor · Runoff — Alan Wilson 69%
- South Carolina Governor · General — Alan Wilson 100%
- South Dakota Governor · Runoff — Toby Doeden 55%
- South Dakota Governor · Rep Primary — Dusty Johnson 44%
- South Dakota Governor · Dem Primary — Daniel Ahlers 100%
- South Dakota Governor · General — Toby Doeden 100%
- Tennessee Governor · Rep Primary — Marsha Blackburn 51%
- Tennessee Governor · Dem Primary — Jerri Green 58%
- Tennessee Governor · General — Marsha Blackburn 99%
- Texas Governor · General — Greg Abbott 74%
- Texas Governor · Dem Primary — Gina Hinojosa 80%
- Texas Governor · Rep Primary — Greg Abbott 82%
- Vermont Governor · Dem Primary — Amanda Janoo 94%
- Vermont Governor · General — Phil Scott 98%
- Vermont Governor · Rep Primary — Phil Scott 100%
- Wisconsin Governor · Dem Primary — Francesca Hong 32%
- Wisconsin Governor · General — Mandela Barnes 66%
- Wisconsin Governor · Rep Primary — Tom Tiffany 94%
- Wyoming Governor · Rep Primary — Eric Barlow 56%
- Wyoming Governor · Dem Primary — Gabriel Green 100%
- Wyoming Governor · General — Eric Barlow 100%