2026 Governor Race Forecasts
Model-driven win probabilities for all 2026 gubernatorial contests, primaries and general elections. Last updated June 26, 2026.
- Alabama Governor · Dem Primary — Yolanda Flowers 32%
- Alabama Governor · Rep Primary — Tommy Tuberville 94%
- Alabama Governor · General — Tommy Tuberville 100%
- Alaska Governor · Primary — Tom Begich 16%
- Alaska Governor · General — Tom Begich 79%
- Arizona Governor · General — Katie Hobbs 72%
- Arizona Governor · Rep Primary — Andy Biggs 69%
- Arizona Governor · Dem Primary — Katie Hobbs 100%
- Arizona Governor · Primary — Barry Hess 100%
- Arkansas Governor · Dem Primary — Fredrick Love 50%
- Arkansas Governor · Primary — Colt Shelby 100%
- Arkansas Governor · Rep Primary — Sarah Huckabee Sanders 100%
- Arkansas Governor · General — Sarah Huckabee Sanders 100%
- California Governor · Primary — Xavier Becerra 20%
- California Governor · General — Xavier Becerra 80%
- Colorado Governor · Dem Primary — Michael Bennet 63%
- Colorado Governor · Rep Primary — Victor Marx 69%
- Colorado Governor · General — Michael Bennet 96%
- Connecticut Governor · Rep Primary — Ryan Fazio 71%
- Connecticut Governor · Dem Primary — Ned Lamont 88%
- Connecticut Governor · General — Ned Lamont 100%
- Florida Governor · Dem Primary — David Jolly 48%
- Florida Governor · General — Byron Donalds 59%
- Florida Governor · Rep Primary — Byron Donalds 71%
- Florida Governor · Primary — Scott Jewett 100%
- Georgia Governor · Rep Primary — Rick Jackson 48%
- Georgia Governor · Dem Primary — Keisha Lance Bottoms 46%
- Georgia Governor · General — Rick Jackson 86%
- Hawaii Governor · Dem Primary — Josh Green 100%
- Hawaii Governor · Rep Primary — Gary Cordery 100%
- Hawaii Governor · General — Josh Green 100%
- Idaho Governor · Primary — Melissa-Sue Robinson 50%
- Idaho Governor · Dem Primary — Maxine Durand 26%
- Idaho Governor · Rep Primary — Brad Little 83%
- Idaho Governor · General — Brad Little 100%
- Illinois Governor · Rep Primary — Darren Bailey 38%
- Illinois Governor · Dem Primary — JB Pritzker 100%
- Illinois Governor · General — JB Pritzker 100%
- Iowa Governor · Rep Primary — Randy Feenstra 40%
- Iowa Governor · General — Rob Sand 82%
- Iowa Governor · Dem Primary — Rob Sand 100%
- Kansas Governor · Dem Primary — Cindy Holscher 56%
- Kansas Governor · Rep Primary — Philip Sarnecki 48%
- Kansas Governor · General — Philip Sarnecki 100%
- Maine Governor · Dem Primary — Nirav Shah 29%
- Maine Governor · Rep Primary — Bobby Charles 41%
- Maine Governor · General — Nirav Shah 100%
- Maryland Governor · Rep Primary — Ed Hale 79%
- Maryland Governor · Dem Primary — Wes Moore 97%
- Maryland Governor · General — Wes Moore 100%
- Massachusetts Governor · Rep Primary — Michael Minogue 53%
- Massachusetts Governor · General — Maura Healey 85%
- Massachusetts Governor · Dem Primary — Maura Healey 100%
- Michigan Governor · Rep Primary — John James 57%
- Michigan Governor · General — Jocelyn Benson 74%
- Michigan Governor · Dem Primary — Jocelyn Benson 91%
- Michigan Governor · Primary — Anthony Hudson 100%
- Minnesota Governor · Rep Primary — Mike Lindell 66%
- Minnesota Governor · Dem Primary — Amy Klobuchar 82%
- Minnesota Governor · General — Amy Klobuchar 94%
- Nebraska Governor · Rep Primary — Jim Pillen 18%
- Nebraska Governor · Dem Primary — Lynne Walz 52%
- Nebraska Governor · General — Jim Pillen 75%
- Nevada Governor · General — Joe Lombardo 74%
- Nevada Governor · Dem Primary — Alexis Hill 64%
- Nevada Governor · Rep Primary — Barak Zilberberg 79%
- New Hampshire Governor · General — Kelly Ayotte 86%
- New Hampshire Governor · Dem Primary — Cinde Warmington 100%
- New Hampshire Governor · Rep Primary — Kelly Ayotte 100%
- New Mexico Governor · Rep Primary — Gregg Hull 50%
- New Mexico Governor · Dem Primary — Deb Haaland 70%
- New Mexico Governor · General — Deb Haaland 100%
- New York Governor · General — Kathy Hochul 96%
- New York Governor · Rep Primary — Bruce Blakeman 96%
- New York Governor · Dem Primary — Kathy Hochul 99%
- Ohio Governor · General — Vivek Ramaswamy 62%
- Ohio Governor · Rep Primary — Vivek Ramaswamy 91%
- Ohio Governor · Dem Primary — Amy Acton 100%
- Ohio Governor · Primary — Don Kissick 100%
- Oklahoma Governor · Rep Primary — Mike Mazzei 44%
- Oklahoma Governor · Dem Primary — Cyndi Munson 94%
- Oklahoma Governor · General — Gentner Drummond 100%
- Oregon Governor · Rep Primary — Christine Drazan 8%
- Oregon Governor · Dem Primary — Tina Kotek 13%
- Oregon Governor · General — Tina Kotek 82%
- Pennsylvania Governor · General — Josh Shapiro 97%
- Pennsylvania Governor · Dem Primary — Josh Shapiro 100%
- Pennsylvania Governor · Primary — Ken Krawchuk 100%
- Pennsylvania Governor · Rep Primary — Stacy Garrity 100%
- Rhode Island Governor · Rep Primary — Aaron Guckian 33%
- Rhode Island Governor · Dem Primary — Helena Foulkes 49%
- Rhode Island Governor · General — Helena Foulkes 100%
- South Carolina Governor · Runoff — Pamela Evette 52%
- South Carolina Governor · Dem Primary — Billy Webster 57%
- South Carolina Governor · Rep Primary — Rom Reddy 41%
- South Carolina Governor · General — Pamela Evette 100%
- South Dakota Governor · Rep Primary — Larry Rhoden 27%
- South Dakota Governor · Runoff — Toby Doeden 55%
- South Dakota Governor · Dem Primary — Daniel Ahlers 100%
- South Dakota Governor · General — Toby Doeden 100%
- Tennessee Governor · Dem Primary — Jerri Green 42%
- Tennessee Governor · Rep Primary — Marsha Blackburn 82%
- Tennessee Governor · General — Marsha Blackburn 99%
- Texas Governor · Dem Primary — Gina Hinojosa 56%
- Texas Governor · General — Greg Abbott 77%
- Texas Governor · Rep Primary — Greg Abbott 82%
- Vermont Governor · Dem Primary — Amanda Janoo 33%
- Vermont Governor · Rep Primary — Phil Scott 100%
- Vermont Governor · General — Phil Scott 100%
- Wisconsin Governor · Dem Primary — Mandela Barnes 44%
- Wisconsin Governor · General — Mandela Barnes 66%
- Wisconsin Governor · Rep Primary — Tom Tiffany 93%
- Wyoming Governor · Rep Primary — Megan Degenfelder 51%
- Wyoming Governor · Dem Primary — Gabriel Green 100%
- Wyoming Governor · General — Megan Degenfelder 100%