Tennessee Governor 2026 Dem Primary

The Tennessee Governor dem primary is scheduled for August 6, 2026. The model favors Jerri Green at 58%, ahead of Kevin Lee McCants at 18% in a 5-candidate field. Jerri Green leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Jerri Green — 58%
2. Kevin Lee McCants — 18%
3. Carnita Atwater — 14%
4. Tim Cyr — 6%
5. Adam "Ditch" Kurtz — 4%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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