Texas Governor 2026 Dem Primary

The Texas Governor dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Gina Hinojosa edges Patricia Abrego, 15% to 11% in a 9-candidate field. Gina Hinojosa has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Gina Hinojosa — 15%
  2. Patricia Abrego — 11%
  3. Chris Bell — 11%
  4. Bobby Cole — 11%
  5. Carlton Hart — 11%
  6. Jose Navarro Balbuena — 11%
  7. Faizan Syed — 11%
  8. Zach Vance — 11%

+1 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model