Alaska Governor 2026 General Election

The Alaska Governor general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican Bernadette Wilson at 62%, ahead of Democrat Tom Begich at 38% in a 4-candidate field. Matt Heilala leads the field in reported fundraising and Bernadette Wilson has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Bernadette Wilson — 62%
2. Tom Begich — 38%
3. Matt Heilala — 0%
4. Dave Bronson — 0%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model