Hawaii Governor 2026 Dem Primary
The Hawaii Governor dem primary is scheduled for August 8, 2026. The model makes Josh Green the heavy favorite at 92%, with Duke Bourgoin at 3% in a 4-candidate field. Josh Green is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Josh Green (incumbent) — 92%
- Duke Bourgoin — 3%
- Lauren Shim — 3%
- George Lucas-Tadeo — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.