Illinois Governor 2026 Rep Primary

The Illinois Governor rep primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026. The model makes Darren Bailey the heavy favorite at 92%, with Ted Dabrowski at 3% in a 4-candidate field. Darren Bailey leads the field in reported fundraising and Ted Dabrowski has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Darren Bailey — 92%
2. Ted Dabrowski — 3%
3. James Mendrick — 3%
4. Rick Heidner — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model