Illinois Governor 2026 Rep Primary

The Illinois Governor rep primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026. The model sees a close race: Ted Dabrowski edges Darren Bailey, 29% to 25% in a 4-candidate field. Ted Dabrowski has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Ted Dabrowski — 29%
  2. Darren Bailey — 25%
  3. James Mendrick — 24%
  4. Rick Heidner — 22%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model