Illinois Governor 2026 Rep Primary
The Illinois Governor rep primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026. The model sees a close race: Ted Dabrowski edges Darren Bailey, 29% to 25% in a 4-candidate field. Ted Dabrowski has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ted Dabrowski — 29%
- Darren Bailey — 25%
- James Mendrick — 24%
- Rick Heidner — 22%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.