Texas Governor 2026 General Election
The Texas Governor general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Greg Abbott the clear favorite at 77%, ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 23%. Greg Abbott is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Gina Hinojosa has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Greg Abbott (incumbent) — 77%
- Gina Hinojosa — 23%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.