South Dakota Governor 2026 Rep Primary
The South Dakota Governor rep primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Larry Rhoden at 58%, ahead of Toby Doeden at 19% in a 4-candidate field. Larry Rhoden is the incumbent and Toby Doeden has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Larry Rhoden (incumbent) — 58%
- Toby Doeden — 19%
- Dusty Johnson — 12%
- Jon Hansen — 11%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.