South Dakota Governor 2026 Rep Primary

The South Dakota Governor rep primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model has Dusty Johnson narrowly ahead of Toby Doeden, 44% to 23% in a 4-candidate field. Dusty Johnson leads the field in reported fundraising, Toby Doeden has the most tracked endorsements, and incumbent Larry Rhoden trails in the forecast. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Dusty Johnson — 44%
2. Toby Doeden — 23%
3. Larry Rhoden (incumbent) — 23%
4. Jon Hansen — 11%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model