South Dakota Governor 2026 General Election

The South Dakota Governor general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Toby Doeden the heavy favorite at 100%, with Democrat Daniel Ahlers at 0%. Toby Doeden has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Toby Doeden — 100%
  2. Daniel Ahlers — 0%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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