South Dakota Governor 2026 General Election
The South Dakota Governor general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Toby Doeden the heavy favorite at 100%, with Democrat Daniel Ahlers at 0%. Toby Doeden has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Toby Doeden — 100%
- Daniel Ahlers — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.