South Dakota Governor 2026 General Election

The South Dakota Governor general election is on November 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Toby Doeden edges Democrat Daniel Ahlers, 50% to 50%. Toby Doeden has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Toby Doeden — 50%
  2. Daniel Ahlers — 50%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model