Wisconsin Governor 2026 Dem Primary

The Wisconsin Governor dem primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. The model sees a close race: Mandela Barnes edges Francesca Hong, 30% to 29% in a 6-candidate field. David Crowley leads the field in reported fundraising and Sara Rodriguez has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Mandela Barnes — 30%
  2. Francesca Hong — 29%
  3. Sara Rodriguez — 20%
  4. David Crowley — 12%
  5. Kelda Roys — 4%
  6. Joel Brennan — 4%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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