Texas Governor 2026 Rep Primary

The Texas Governor rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Greg Abbott the clear favorite at 82%, ahead of Pete "Doc" Chambers at 6% in a 11-candidate field. Greg Abbott is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Greg Abbott (incumbent) — 82%
2. Pete "Doc" Chambers — 6%
3. Evelyn Brooks — 2%
4. Arturo Espinosa — 1%
5. Mark V. Goloby — 1%
6. R.F. "Bob" Achgill — 1%
7. Charles Andrew Crouch — 1%
8. Kenneth Hyde — 1%

+3 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model