Oregon Governor 2026 Dem Primary

The Oregon Governor dem primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Tina Kotek the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Forest "Fora" Alexander at 2% in a 10-candidate field. Tina Kotek is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Tina Kotek (incumbent) — 79%
2. Forest "Fora" Alexander — 2%
3. James Atkinson IV — 2%
4. Donnie Beckwith — 2%
5. David Beem — 2%
6. Brittany N. Jones — 2%
7. Cal Kishawi — 2%
8. Steve Laible — 2%

+2 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model