Florida Governor 2026 Dem Primary

The Florida Governor dem primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes David Jolly the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Dayna Marie Foster at 8% in a 6-candidate field. David Jolly leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. David Jolly — 79%
  2. Dayna Marie Foster — 8%
  3. Thomas Eloy Fernandez — 5%
  4. Evelyn Castillo-Bach — 4%
  5. Stephann Norman — 3%
  6. Dotie Joseph — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated September 11, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model