Florida Governor 2026 Dem Primary

The Florida Governor dem primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes David Jolly the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Evelyn Castillo-Bach at 6% in a 6-candidate field. David Jolly leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. David Jolly — 79%
  2. Evelyn Castillo-Bach — 6%
  3. Dayna Marie Foster — 5%
  4. Stephann Norman — 5%
  5. Thomas Eloy Fernandez — 5%
  6. Dotie Joseph — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model