Florida Governor 2026 Rep Primary

The Florida Governor rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model favors Byron Donalds at 66%, ahead of Jay Collins at 13% in a 11-candidate field. Byron Donalds leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Byron Donalds — 66%
2. Jay Collins — 13%
3. James Fishback — 9%
4. Paul Renner — 6%
5. Jim Holcomb — 1%
6. Rachel Rodriguez — 1%
7. James Walker Shaw — 1%
8. Caneste Succe — 1%

+3 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated September 11, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model