Michigan Governor 2026 Rep Primary

The Michigan Governor rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model sees a close race: John James edges Mike Cox, 47% to 40% in a 4-candidate field. Mike Cox leads the field in reported fundraising and John James has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. John James — 47%
  2. Mike Cox — 40%
  3. Aric Nesbitt — 11%
  4. Perry Johnson — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model