South Carolina Senate 2026 Rep Primary

The South Carolina Senate rep primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026. The model makes Lindsey Graham the clear favorite at 83%, ahead of Mark Lynch at 7% in a 6-candidate field. Lindsey Graham is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Lindsey Graham (incumbent) — 83%
2. Mark Lynch — 7%
3. Thomas Dismukes — 2%
4. Patrick Herrmann — 2%
5. Calvin Cowen — 2%
6. Darius L. Mitchell — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model