South Carolina Senate 2026 Rep Primary
The South Carolina Senate rep primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026. The model favors Lindsey Graham at 56%, ahead of Mark Lynch at 37% in a 6-candidate field. Lindsey Graham is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Lindsey Graham (incumbent) — 56%
- Mark Lynch — 37%
- Patrick Herrmann — 2%
- Thomas Dismukes — 2%
- Calvin Cowen — 2%
- Darius L. Mitchell — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.