Alaska Senate 2026 General Election
The Alaska Senate general election is on November 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Dan Sullivan edges Democrat Mary Peltola, 51% to 49% in a 4-candidate field. Dan Sullivan is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Mary Peltola has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Dan Sullivan (incumbent) — 51%
- Mary Peltola — 49%
- Dustin Darden — 0%
- Dan J. Sullivan — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.