New Mexico Senate 2026 Dem Primary
The New Mexico Senate dem primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Ben Ray Luján the heavy favorite at 97%, with Matt Dodson at 3%. Ben Ray Luján is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ben Ray Luján (incumbent) — 97%
- Matt Dodson — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.