Florida Senate 2026 Rep Primary
The Florida Senate rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes Ashley Moody the heavy favorite at 92%, with Chris Gleason at 3% in a 4-candidate field. Ashley Moody is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ashley Moody (incumbent) — 92%
- Chris Gleason — 3%
- Ernest "Ernie" Rivera — 3%
- Neelam Taneja Perry — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.