Arkansas Senate 2026 General Election
The Arkansas Senate general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Tom Cotton the clear favorite at 87%, ahead of Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 13%. Tom Cotton is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tom Cotton (incumbent) — 87%
- Hallie Shoffner — 13%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.