Arkansas Senate 2026 General Election
The Arkansas Senate general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Tom Cotton the heavy favorite at 99%, with Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 1%. Tom Cotton is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tom Cotton (incumbent) — 99%
- Hallie Shoffner — 1%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.