Arkansas Senate 2026 Rep Primary
The Arkansas Senate rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Tom Cotton the heavy favorite at 94%, with Jeb Little at 3% in a 3-candidate field. Tom Cotton is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tom Cotton (incumbent) — 94%
- Jeb Little — 3%
- Micah Ashby — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.