Virginia Senate 2026 General Election
The Virginia Senate general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Democrat Mark Warner the heavy favorite at 99%, with Republican Bert Mizusawa at 1%. Mark Warner is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mark Warner (incumbent) — 99%
- Bert Mizusawa — 1%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.