Oregon Senate 2026 General Election
The Oregon Senate general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Democrat Jeff Merkley the heavy favorite at 100%, with Republican David Brock Smith at 0%. Jeff Merkley is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jeff Merkley (incumbent) — 100%
- David Brock Smith — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.